October 12, 2026
Orange County
Housing Report
"Surging mortgage rates are bringing an already sluggish housing market to a crawl."
Prepared by
Jason & Susan Zwolak
The Zwolak Group · First Team Real Estate
01 · Market Snapshot
The numbers at a glance
Source: Reports on Housing · CRMLS · October 12, 2026
01
Active Inventory
4,924
homes · −28 in 2 weeks (−0.6%) · vs. 4,478 last year (+10%)
02
Expected Market Time
118
days · up from 110 · vs. 85 last year · highest since April 2020
03
Pending Sales / Demand
1,249
−100 in 2 weeks (−7%) · −21% year over year · lowest October since 2007
04
Closed Resales (August)
1,755
down 6% from Aug 2025's 1,875 · down 9% from July
05
Sales-to-List Ratio
99.5%
99.72% sellers with equity
06
Median Active List Price
$1.2M
All of Orange County · rates at 7.5%
02 · Hyperlocal Reality
Your neighborhood is not the county average
Every city, zip code, and micro-market in Orange County tells a different story. Newport Beach, Anaheim Hills, and Rancho Santa Margarita can move at entirely different speeds — and the same is true block by block. If you want the true value of your home and a clearer picture of where you stand, you need hyperlocal statistics for your specific area.
"Don't rely on broad OC headlines. Reach out and I will give you the hyperlocal statistics for your exact area — so you can make decisions based on true value, not averages."
Examples from the October 12 report: Fountain Valley at 49 days, Seal Beach at 74 days, Yorba Linda at 110 days, San Juan Capistrano at 85 days, and Tustin at 77 days. Your results depend on your specific price point, condition, and location — and no algorithm can see them.
03 · Active Listing Inventory
Inventory barely dips as sellers wait for buyers
Active inventory declined by just 28 homes (0.6%) over the past two weeks to 4,924. Higher mortgage rates mean fewer pending sales, leaving more sellers waiting without success. Inventory is expected to remain elevated until the week before Thanksgiving, then fall more rapidly during the holidays as fewer homes are listed and unsuccessful sellers withdraw. Last year there were 4,478 homes — today's supply is 10% higher. The pre-COVID average was 6,306 homes. Through September, 27% fewer homes were listed than the pre-COVID average.
October Active Inventory — Year over Year
04 · Rates Rise, Housing Stalls
Higher rates squeeze purchasing power
01
Demand falls 18% in six weeks
Mortgage rates rose from 6.75% in late August to around 7.5%. Demand fell from 1,528 to 1,249 pending sales — a loss of 279, or 18%, in six weeks. Inventory fell only 1% over the same period, pushing market time from 98 to 118 days. Demand is now 21% below last year.
02
$178,750 less buying power
With 20% down and a $6,000 monthly principal-and-interest budget, a buyer could afford a $1,251,250 home at February's 6% rate. At 7.5%, that same budget supports a $1,072,500 home — $178,750 less purchasing power. The rate matters just as much as the asking price.
03
$956 more each month
For a $1.2 million home with 20% down and a $960,000 loan, monthly principal and interest rises from $5,756 at 6% to $6,712 at 7.5% — an extra $956 per month, or $11,472 per year. Demand's rapid decline may ease if rates remain stable, but further increases would add pressure.
05 · Expected Market Time
Market time stretches to 118 days
With inventory down 0.6% and demand down 7% in two weeks, Expected Market Time rose from 110 to 118 days — its highest reading since April 2020. This measures how long it would take to sell all listings at the current buying pace, not a promise for any individual home. Last year it was 85 days, and the pre-COVID average was 87. Condominiums and townhomes now stand at 139 days versus 105 days for detached homes. Luxury homes above $2.5 million average 183 days, with 952 active listings and 156 pending sales.
October Expected Market Time
Days to Sell by Price Range
Attached vs. Detached — Expected Market Time
128 two weeks ago · 83 last year
99 two weeks ago · 86 last year · 2,710 currently on the market
"With mortgage rates surging, the Orange County housing market has stalled."
06 · What This Means For You
Every market tells a story. Yours is unique.
If you're selling
Price for the pace of demand
With 4,924 homes competing and demand down 21% year over year, buyers have less purchasing power and more time to compare. Price against the newest local comparables and your home's direct competition, not earlier expectations. At 118 days countywide — and 139 for condos and townhomes — prepare for a longer timeline and reassess if showings do not turn into offers.
If you're buying
More room to negotiate — watch the payment
Slower demand gives you more time to compare homes and discuss price or terms, especially for condos and townhomes. But rates around 7.5% can offset a lower purchase price, so base your budget on today's monthly payment. Market speed varies widely: $1.25–1.5 million homes average 86 days, while homes above $6 million average 379. Focus on your specific neighborhood and price range rather than the county average.
Let's talk
Questions about your home's value or your next move?
Headline numbers paint broad strokes — your home, neighborhood, and timeline have a story of their own. Let's have a real conversation, no pressure.