August 17, 2026
Orange County
Housing Report
"AI is not an accurate gauge for determining a home's price — it should only be the starting point of a conversation with a real estate professional."
Prepared by
Jason & Susan Zwolak
The Zwolak Group · First Team Real Estate
01 · Market Snapshot
The numbers at a glance
Source: Reports on Housing · CRMLS · August 17, 2026
01
Active Inventory
5,054
homes · +8 in 2 weeks · flat · vs. 5,011 last year
02
Expected Market Time
99
days · down from 101 · vs. 91 last year
03
Pending Sales / Demand
1,535
+41 in 2 weeks · +3% · largest rise since May
04
Closed Resales (July)
1,930
vs. 1,934 in July 2025 · down 3% from June
05
Sales-to-List Ratio
99.5%
99.9% sellers with equity
06
Median Active List Price
$1.3M
All of Orange County
02 · Hyperlocal Reality
Your neighborhood is not the county average
Every city, zip code, and micro-market in Orange County tells a different story. Newport Beach, Anaheim Hills, and Rancho Santa Margarita can move at entirely different speeds — and the same is true block by block. If you want the true value of your home and a clearer picture of where you stand, you need hyperlocal statistics for your specific area.
"Don't rely on broad OC headlines. Reach out and I will give you the hyperlocal statistics for your exact area — so you can make decisions based on true value, not averages."
Examples from the August 17 report: Yorba Linda at 69 days, Westminster at 74 days, Villa Park at 90 days, and Tustin at 101 days. Your results depend on your specific price point, condition, and location — and no algorithm can see them.
03 · Active Listing Inventory
Inventory hits a plateau as summer winds down
The active listing inventory rose by just 8 homes over the past two weeks — nearly unchanged — to 5,054. Supply has added only 34 homes in four weeks, a clear plateau ahead of the Autumn Market. Last year there were 5,011 homes (1% fewer), and inventory remains 33% below the pre-COVID 3-year average of 6,723.
Mid-August Active Inventory — Year over Year
04 · Pricing & Demand
AI pricing inaccuracies — the danger of a confident wrong number
01
A Zestimate is a starting point, not a value
In Orange County the median Zestimate error is 1.9% for actively listed homes — but that figure is recalculated after a home hits the market, giving heavy weight to the asking price. Zillow itself says it is not an appraisal and cannot replace one.
02
Off-market estimates miss by $133,800
For homes valued before listing, the median error rate is 6.69%. On a $1 million estimate that is plus-or-minus $66,900 — an actual sale anywhere from $933,100 to $1,066,900. AI cannot see condition, upgrades, views, privacy, staging, or buyer perception.
03
Demand posts its largest rise since May
Demand rose by 41 pending sales in two weeks, up 3%, to 1,535 — yet still the lowest mid-August reading since tracking began in 2004. Last year it was 1,652 (8% higher), and the pre-COVID 3-year average was 2,574, 68% above today.
05 · Expected Market Time
Market time improves to 99 days
With supply nearly unchanged and demand up 3%, Expected Market Time dropped from 101 to 99 days. Last year it was 91 days and the pre-COVID norm was 79. The split widened: condominiums and townhomes now take 118 days versus 87 days for detached homes — a full month apart.
Mid-August Expected Market Time
Days to Sell by Price Range
Attached vs. Detached — Expected Market Time
114 two weeks ago · 85 last year
93 two weeks ago · 95 last year
"Carefully reviewing all recent comparable closed and pending sales is the only way to establish price accurately. AI and AVMs cannot walk through your home."
06 · What This Means For You
Every market tells a story. Yours is unique.
If you're selling
Don't price from an algorithm
An off-market AVM estimate can miss by nearly $134,000 on a $1M home. With 5,054 homes competing and July resales flat year over year at 1,930, accurate pricing against real comparable closed and pending sales is what gets you sold — and sold for more.
If you're buying
Choice remains, luxury is mixed
Selection is still the best in a year, and homes between $2M and $4M have sped up sharply (down to 103 and 111 days). Above $6M the market slowed to 370 days — negotiation leverage at the very top is significant.
Let's talk
Questions about your home's value or your next move?
Headline numbers paint broad strokes — your home, neighborhood, and timeline have a story of their own. Let's have a real conversation, no pressure.